North Korea suddenly called South Korea an enemy and closed all the dialogue routes with it again. This decision has caused considerable turmoil and confusion in the diplomatic circles. The question is, why is North Korea doing this?
Chinese foreign policy experts have become almost common opinion that Kovid epidemic China's diplomatic establishment North Korea has been expressing its displeasure with South Korea for the past several days. The reason for the protest was that the rebels who fled North Korea were constantly sending leaflets criticizing the leaders in North Korea. For the past several years, North Korean rebels settled in South Korea have been sending pamphlets against the North Korean government against its anti-human rights and dictatorial attitude with the help of big balloons from across the border. North Korea has also been opposing it. This time also, despite the opposition of North Korea, these activities did not stop and as a result North Korea has taken this step.
It is not that the hotline established between North and South Korea since the 1970s has been closed for the first time. North Korea has done this before, but this is the first time since 2016. After this decision of North Korea, all channels of communication between the two countries have been closed, although the hot line between the two countries was limited to test calls in the same way. It is believed that this decision has been taken by Kim Jong Un's sister Kim Yo Jong and the ruling party's Vice Chairman Kim Yong-Chol. Obviously, with this decision, Kim Yo Jong is trying to show his influence on power, who has recently been reinstated as a member of Politburo.
North Korea's aggressive attitude
Actually, North Korea's fret is somewhere behind this decision. Whether North American President Donald Trump or South Korean President Moon Jae-in interacted with these two leaders, North Korea did not benefit much. While Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un held three summits in 2018, Trump and Kim also met in Singapore and Vietnam. But the real result of these talks was overall faded.
North Korea has taken an aggressive stance since the Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam in 2019, with no tangible results on North Korea's nuclear program and other issues. This country, which is struggling with economic troubles, hoped that it would probably get some economic concessions through negotiation but it did not happen. As a result, North Korea has continued its nuclear program and has also conducted several missile tests in recent months.
Whenever there has been any international action on North Korea in the last two decades, in response, it has targeted the first target on South Korea itself. The Kim administration knows that its diplomatic and military powers will have the greatest impact on South Korea. This is also happening this time. South Korea has come under pressure and in the last three days its diplomats have also made several unsuccessful attempts to get back to North Korea.
Why does the conversation stop in diplomacy
It is important to understand here why countries like North Korea move towards ending dialogue? The first reason is that they do not see a solution to their problems through diplomatic communication. They feel that the round of negotiations is not only increasing their negotiating power at the political level, but also reducing their credibility from the perspective of the debtors. They feel that other countries are starting to judge them lightly, and hence they take an aggressive stand back. The second reason is that these countries have their own internal problems and ups and downs.
North Korea is currently grappling with both of these issues. The Kovid-19 epidemic has also affected North Korea, where rumors of Kim Jong-un being ill have been reported. There is no reliable data of people affected by Kovid-19 in North Korea, but it can be clearly said that this figure is not small in view of the strong trade relations with China and the movement of people. At the same time, due to the sanctions of the United Nations, the economy is deeply affected and China, its closest country, has already reduced trade.
Due to internal uncertainty and frustration arising out of the negotiations, North Korea has taken this step so that along with South Korea, the US will pay attention to it as before. For now, if South Korea and America do not take any big positive step, then this situation will continue for the next few months. It remains to be seen how soon South Korea will start trying to convince North Korea by promising them financial help.
(Rahul Mishra is Senior Lecturer of International Politics at the Asia-Europe Institute, Universiti Malaya )
Article was first published on DW.com Hindi version
Last Update: 11/11/2021