India has been opposing China's Belt and Road project since the beginning, but this opposition has been more economic and less diplomatic. Now the changed circumstances due to Corona put big question marks on this project of China's reputation.
Chinese foreign policy experts have almost become common opinion that the Covid epidemic has brought major challenges in the way of China's diplomatic reputation, economy and especially the ambitious Belt and Road project. According to a survey by China's prestigious research institute, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Covid-19 has tarnished China's image and credibility in such a way that today China's reputation in the world has fallen back to where it was in 1989, Tiananmen The square was at the time of the massacre. Clearly, amidst the global economic downturn, shrinking economy and falling credibility, the Belt and Road project has also raised questions and it is not easy to overcome these questions.
The Belt and Road project was announced in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan (grassroots silk road) and Indonesia (marine silk road). This ambitious, hundreds-of-billion China-centric project has so far been approved by more than 135 countries, whose main objective is not only direct rail and road connectivity of all countries of Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia with China. Rather, it is also to increase Chinese investment and trade several times in all these countries. From mines to seaports, car-train-airports and stadiums to kal-factories - China's investment and dominance in many sectors has increased in many partner countries.
The Great Wall of China
So what are China's challenges and concerns, and will China's belt and road project come to a standstill due to these apprehensions?
Actually there are many reasons behind these fears. Tourism, flight services, hotels and all industry industries stalled in hundreds of countries facing lockdown for months have pushed the world economy into recession. All the countries of the world including America, China and Japan are stepping into this recession. Yesterday - global decline in factories, tourism and import-export has given a major blow to China's economic system dependent on exports. Covid has also closed many export doors, causing China's economy to falter and it will take time to recover. Today, there is a big question in front of China to reschedule its priorities. Covid has already brought a situation of scabies in the leprosy to China trapped in the trade war with America. China is keen to fight credibility as well as countries like Australia and is banning its vital import resources from Australia, over the issue of demanding an impartial inquiry from the WHO of over 110 countries over the origin of Covid. . In the midst of these troubles, it will be very difficult for him to concentrate fully on the Belt and Road project.
The burden of economically weak countries
Another economic reason for China's concerns is that about half of the partner countries (more than 65) of the project's countries are small and medium-class poor countries whose economic condition and direction is deteriorating. These are the same countries whose sovereign credit rating and ease of investment have been pathetic in the index for years. Analysts of the Belt and Road project had already expressed concern about them. According to some agencies, China has so far invested more than $ 460 billion in total loans and loans through its banks. Many countries like Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos fall into this category. In the wake of the Covid epidemic, some countries have requested for relaxation in the loan taken from China in view of the deteriorating economic situation. There are indications that China will not take interest on borrowing from select countries at present. At the same time it has also clarified that if such a decision is taken, it will not apply to all the countries simultaneously, but it will be taken into account with the condition and mutual relations of each partner country. At present, China has not officially taken such a decision.
On the other hand, there are many such partners Western countries who have held China responsible for hiding information related to Covid virus and this has started to raise public confidence in these countries from China. China sent PPE kits to many countries to fight Covid, and in many countries, such as Italy and Turkey, large scale disturbances were also found in these kits. The deterioration in China's credibility will be a hindrance in improving China's image in these countries for at least a few years. For the moment, it has been a matter of relief for China that there has not been a general consensus about China in America and Europe. Many important countries of Europe do not yet regard China as a major threat to the liberal world order. He believes that China can still be made a responsible part of the world system. In the last two months, China, in response to its criticism of Covid, has taken an aggressive stance and has distanced the entire world from itself. Due to lack of time, circumstances can lead to global polarization which will not be good for any country.
Confused to choose the right partner for China
The biggest confusion confronting China is that those countries which have direct economic benefit from investment will be reluctant to come with it, then the line of those countries which are economically weak and where the investment decision is less economic And more strategic-diplomatic. Hambantota Port of Sri Lanka is one such example. When the Sri Lankan government expressed its inability to repay the $ 8 million loan at 6 percent interest, the Chinese government in turn offered to keep the port under its management for 99 years. By agreeing on this, the economic problems of Sri Lanka were solved, but control of the port also went out of hand. The interesting thing here is that not every country has the same strategic importance as Sri Lanka. In such a situation, it will be important to see in which countries China decides in the interest of its shrinking economy and where its strategic-diplomatic interests come first. However, it is certain that China is not in a position to weigh its investments in a single scale.
Despite all these difficulties, the Belt and Road project is not expected to come to a standstill. The main reason for this is President Xi's personal inclination towards this project. Xi has liked the project so much that it has not only become his flagship project but it has also been included in the Chinese Constitution. Putting this project on hold will hurt his personal reputation and therefore Xi will not let this happen. It is important to understand here that there have been many occasions in the last three decades where China has shown to the world that, like the former Soviet Union, it does not believe in losing its life in prestige. He never gave up practicality even in the midst of telling and listening to America and has also carefully changed his policies step by step. At the policy level, this will probably be the reason that China will see changes in the Belt and Road project and due to these practical policies, the Belt and Road project will never come to a complete halt.
(Rahul Mishra is Senior Lecturer of International Politics at the Asia-Europe Institute, Universiti Malaya )
Article was first published on DW.com Hindi version
Last Update: 11/11/2021